I'm not Nostradamus (though I did predict the war of 1812)*
Wednesday, November 4, 2009 at 06:13AM 
Yesterday I went on PIX11 and made two predictions (if they had posted the clip you'd be watching it instead of reading about it). First, Mayor Bloomberg would win, but it would be a much smaller margin than the polls were showing, and it would not be a mandate. Second, if Chris Daggett, the third party candidate in NJ, polled less then 10% on election day, Chris Christie would win.
Daggett polled about 5%, and Christie won by 4 points. Bloomberg won by 3%, and clearly he has no mandate. At one point in the evening, all the networks called Mayor Bloomberg the winner with only 10% of precincts reporting, and reminiscent of 2000 they had to retract those calls a half hour later when it was tied with 40 percent reporting. Nice.
What's the big takeaway from yesterday's elections? It's no surprise that the Republican won in Virginia -- that was fairly expected even though Obama had won their last last year. The margin, however -- nearly 20 percent -- is a bit of surprise, and shows the depth of unease out there. Moreover, the Republicans swept all the statewide offices in VA -- Attorney General, Lt Governor, etc -- and exit polls showed that the president's unpopularity was a big issue. Bad sign for the prez.
On the other hand, Christie's win in NJ is a big surprise. Joisy is a solidly blue state, and while Corzine was a dreadful candidate, he still outspent Christie by 3 to 1 and had seemingly pulled even in the polls. Christie's four point victory is considered a blowout by NJ standards, and exit polls showed that the moderate swing voters -- the ones that flocked to Obama last year -- went overwhelming to Christie. Same thing as Virginia.
This doesn't portend well for the Democrats in 2010. While those elections are eons away, the underlying sentiment -- frustration with the stagnant economy, runaway deficit, overall growth in government -- doesn't seem to be dissipating. It'll be interesting to see if these results impact the congressional Democrats approach to healthcare reform over the next two months. Will they still insist on a highly unpopular public option? Will the president reach out to Republicans and solicit their ideas for the bill? Will the Mets ever win another game? Important questions ...
*While I technically did write about the War of 1812 in one of my quatrains, I predicted that the Axis Powers would blietzkrieg through Canada and then threaten the south with nukes. So I guess I was a little off.
Reader Comments (3)
3 visits from Obama.
2 visits from Bill Clinton.
1 visit from Biden.
Christie wins.
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