NJ Gubernatorial election
Monday, November 2, 2009 at 06:33AM 
Election Day should be an interesting one in the Jerz. Here's my take on the Gubernatorial election between Corzine and Christie ... Three months ago, I thought Christie was a lock: Corzine's numbers were in the tank, Christie seemed like a solid candidate, and Obama was mired in the summer doldrums, which wasn't helping the cause.
Flash forward to last month, and it looked like Corzine had overtaken Christie in the polls and was beginning to pull away. Why? For starters, money. Corzine has lots of it, and he flooded the air waves with negative ads. The New York Times also began poking around Christie's record and personal life, and the rash of negative stories began to take its toll. And third party candidate Chris Daggett, a Republican turned Independent, started siphoning critical support away from Christie.
And now? Well, things have tightened up considerably, to the point of being a dead heat. Most polls show Christie with a fractional lead, but essentially it's a dead heat. So my prediction for election day? The NJ Democrats typically have a much better get out the vote machine than the Republicans, so that bodes well for Corzine. On the other hand, history shows that third party candidates typically over poll (mean they come in under their poll numbers on election day), and if that's the case Christie will benefit.
At the end of the day, it really comes down to mobilization -- which candidate can turn their base out. If this is a genuine change election, then Christie wins. If it's a "lesser of two evils" election than its Corzine. The White House is desperate to maintain some electoral momentum, especially with the Democrats trailing badly in the nation's other gubernatorial election in Virginia -- so much so that President Obama is scheduled to make several last minute campaign stops for Corzine. My prediction: Christie in a squeaker.
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