The inevitable october surprise
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 at 07:51PM One of the more fun aspects of presidential politics is trying to predict the "October Surprise."
For the uninitiated, an October Surprise refers to a last minute bombshell that is revealed by either the media, or the opposition, or in some cases the administration -- just days before the election -- in the hopes of changing the outcome.
In '68, Lyndon Johnson ordered a bombing halt of North Vietnam just days before election day so as to give Hubert Humphrey, who was trailing in the polls, a last minute boost. It nearly worked: Humphrey lost by a whisker in one of the closest election in history.
In 1992, Independent Counsel Lawrence Walsh indicted former Reagan Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger a week before election day for his involvement in the Iran-Contra scandal, effectively stopping cold Bush's late momentum. It was no secret that Walsh believed that President Bush had also been involved in Iran-Contra, and many believe the indictment was politically motivated.
And in 2000, with days to go in the election, it was revealed that George W. Bush had once been arrested in Maine for DWI. Many in the Bush camp believed that the Gore campaign leaked the information at the last possible moment to put a seed of doubt in voters mind about his character.
So what will this October bring? Will the administration do something late in the game to shift the momentum back to McCain? Perhaps something in the middle east? Will McCain dredge up the Reverend Wright stuff? Will team Obama drop a Palin bombshell with days to go?
Who knows ... but you can count on something happening. What's your prediction?
Footnote: Enter the contest -- person with the closest guess for an October Surprise wins two tickets to Nickragone.com-palazoo, and two playoffs tickets for the New York Yankees!
Reader Comments (8)
I don't have too much time to read about politics (subtext - working too hard), though I do thoroughly enjoy your blog. I think the big story this time around is .. well it's not big ... but I'm reading bits and pieces about voter suppression all over the place, new laws put in place to block low income and minority voters, even those with foreclosures, it's maddening, at least to me. I don't know what the October surprise will be - but I read : NASTY.
It will probably have to do with race, if I know Schmidt/Rove. Perhaps they'll build on their performance against McCain in 2000 by claiming Obama had sex with white women. Nothing like a little anti-Mandingo backlash to help suppress the vote.
It is disgusting, but it is Karl Rove.
Nick - why not have a contest to predict what the October surprise will be?
Although I'm just not sure if there could be any real winner. The stakes are
incredibly high this time around.
Not a bad idea. Person who comes closest to the October Surprise wins two tickets to Nickragone.com-palooza.
Or the winners get to babysit Nick's kids for a day.
My bet is that Bin Laden will amazingly be found and captured. The recent news of special forces crossing into Pakistan unannounced would support this theory.
Rick,
That's a good one. Maybe that's the real way they're spending the $85 billion for AIG. Payoffs.
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