Poll this
Monday, September 15, 2008 at 07:52PM I suspect that the Palin bounce will flatten in the next day or two, particularly with financial chaos taking center stage, but two more indications that she's changed the electoral math.
First, Chuck Todd of NBC wrote in his note today that (in their estimation) Obama's once substantial lead in electoral votes/ states had all but vanished. Chuck is basically the gold standard for state-counting, so it means something when he moves Florida solidly into the McCain column, and downgrades Washington and Oregon from likely-Obama to lean- Obama. (Amazingly, several polls have NJ as a dead heat, too, which was hard to imagine just six weeks ago. It's a bad sign for the Democrats if McCain is forced to spend time and run ads in the Garden State).
The second is the Rasmussen battleground poll, which shows McCain opening up wide leads in Florida and Ohio -- two critical "hold" states for the Republicans -- as well as a narrow lead in Colorado (which was once thought to be solidly for Obama). It also shows a deadheat in Pennslyvania (47-47), as well as Virginia (48-48). The Virginia numbers are good news for Obama; a win there would force McCain to win either Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania may be the real wildcard in all this. While the Republicans like to make a run at it every four years, it has been two decades since one has actually carried the state, and that's mostly because Michael Dukakis was an cosmicly bad candidate. Several polls show it in a dead heat, but it's difficult to determine their reliability. One thing is for certain: Obama did worse than expected in the primary against Hilllary Clinton, where he was defeated by double digits after the polls had showed a fairly close race.
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