Can the Palin factor impact Congress?

As implausible as it seemed even three weeks ago, the Republicans may have an opportunity to win back seats in Congress -- at least according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll.

Among likely voters, 50 percent of Americans favor a Republican controlled Congress, with 45 percent in support of the Democrats.  For over a year, this number had been lopsided in favor of the Democrats.  

And for good reason:  President Bush's approval rating have been hovering in the low 30s for over a year now, and it was simply assumed that the Democrats would see large gains in both houses of Congress.

The very notion that the Republicans could actually gain seats still seems a bit far fetched, but the fact that polls show otherwise has to be part of the Palin effect; there's really no other explanation for it. 

The likely reason for the poll flip-flop is that Sarah Palin is attracting base voters and non-committed independents.  McCain had done little to energize the base, and a percentage of them were simply not going to vote for him.  Palin has changed all that, and in the process it may impact down ticket races for Congress and statewide office.

Need further proof:  It was reported that Palin attracted 23,000 people to an event in Fairfax, Virginia, which is a solidly Democratic county in a critical swing state.  Even Obama didn't draw those size crowds when he went through the county earlier in the week.  She may be mediocre in the on-one-one's, but she's a superstar on the stump.