McCain in the eye of the storm
Monday, September 1, 2008 at 07:21PM The next few days may make or break the election for John McCain.
Somehow, they're going to have to figure out how to salvage what's left of their national convention. They've rightly suspended all political activity in light of hurricane Gustav, but the net result is that it freezes the campaign -- and Obama's lead -- for possibly several days. The real problem for McCain and the Republicans is that they intended to use their convention to hammer at Obama's thin record, but given Gustav's destruction that would seem in poor taste. In effect, Obama will now get a free pass -- a pass that McCain really can't afford to give.
And of course the bigger problem is the revelation that Governor Palin's daugther is five months pregnant -- not because it calls into question Palin's values or judgment, but rather because it calls into question McCain's vetting process and judgment.
The campaign put the news out during Gustav in the hopes that it would get scant notice, but there's no way John McCain will avoid having to talk in detail about the vetting process I think by and large, the mainstream media will leave the human interest aspect of this story alone -- as they should -- but McCain's decision making process will be scrutinized for days and weeks to come.
Footnote: I had assumed the polls all showed an Obama lead, but on closer inspection, the three most recent show a one point Obama lead (CNN: 49-48), a two point McCain lead (Zogby - 47-45), and a six point Obama lead (Gallup: 49-43). All three polls were conducted over the weekend, after the Palin selection. Gallup's overnight tracking showed a 8 point lead on Friday and Saturday, which then dipped to 6 points after the Palin announcment.
Reader Comments (8)
MSM vetting is already in full throttle mode, and it won't stop with the daughter pregnancy. Already, stories about her ties to indicted Sen Ted Stephens, troopergate, video clip of her saying the Iraq war is all about oil and nothing else...and the list will go on. Just my opinion, and I always appreciate Nick's insight and thoughts...but i strongly feel even more than a few days ago, that this pick is a selection that backfired before things even began. McCain, Rick Davis, et all really blew this one.
It's weird but the more the MSM piles it on, the more it will energize the base and swing-independents. The only group of people lower on the rung than lawyers and politicians is the media. If she can be an effective campaigner -- and the early returns are very impressive -- than all this noise goes away, just like it did for Clinton in 92 and Obama with Rev Wright.
Where's the commentary on Palin's 17 year old daughter (a MINOR BTW) who's 5 months pregnant by a self proclaimed (check out his myspace page) "f-ing redneck"? So awesome for the GOP that the VP candidate is running on a hardline pro-life, no sex education, no birth control platform. Looks like that's really working for her at home. I don't believe for a second that McCain knew her daughter was pregnant. I don't believe Palin knew she was pregnant. And this statement that she plans to marry the father? I smell bull!@@#$. Does anyone else think this marriage is a desperate measure by the party to control this situation? The baby's father states on his myspace page that he doesn't want kids. Hmmm. I realize the campaign is trying to put a "positive" spin on this, but the statement Palin made to the press is REPULSIVE. No parent of a 17 year old (let alone one who is 44 and just had a baby of her own) is "proud to be a grandparent". It's just not credible. I believe that this should absolutely be a private, family issue. However when you accept the VP nom you have to know that everything about your personal life becomes a public issue. Can anyone imagine what the GOP would have done to the Clinton's if Chelsea (or any of the Gore girls for that matter) had become pregnant underage?
I agree with SL- the families are supposed to be scrutinized when running for this kind of position. It's common sense. Clinton was scrutinized for his affair; this woman's child rearing capabilities should also be. It's funny- the GOP is so about pushing for family values, yet i'm starting to lose sight of the values within these candidates. How does a forced child marriage make the child's pregnancy any less serious a matter? Especially considering the rise of teen pregnancies as of late. Funny that Britney Spear's little sister gets pregnant young and the evangelicals attack the mother for raising the child wrong; yet for Palin, she gets $200 to pass go.
You hit the nail on the head -- Clinton was scrutinized for his foibles ... and survived it. She's going to be scrutinized, and in the end the only thing that will matter is her performance on the stump. If she's a good as campaigner as it seems like, then this stuff goes away. If she's not, McCain is toast.
Clinton said he didn’t inhale, Bush might have use coke, Obama admitted to using drugs- the list of allegations goes on. But why is Bristol’s pregnancy such a big deal? Thomas Jefferson had an illegitimate child with his slave.
Children born out of wedlock, deadbeat dads, single-family homes, etc. are an all too common occurrence in American society. I truly hope this ‘scandal’ will bring about a much needed debate and progress in the matter. However, I hold a somewhat pessimistic view toward the American public. We Americans suffer from both short-term and long-term memory loss, with the exception of “Remember the Alamo!” By the end of the RNC, I am confident the Republican Party will distract the average American with fancy rhetoric and tough talk, thus causing Palin’s baby issue and her husband’s DUI arrest to splinter from the forefront only to be brushed under the rug with all the other American political scandals.
Look- we all have skeletons in the closet, the only thing is, some us will have to dust them off more often than others.
Travis, would you pick an executive for your company having spoke with the person one time. I mean, this lady is thisclose to running our country for god sakes...what am i missing here. Sure Ralph Reed and his people are happy with her creationism, anti-abortion views, but would he even hire an assistant to carry his bible around town if he only met the person one time?
No, I would not. But, you have to keep in mind that these people are pros, campaign strategists can make mucho dinero- they are paid to make the right decision. Any course of action is well thought out, and the pros and cons are weighed with much consideration.
I think from a conservative’s point of view, McCain is at least headed in the right direction in all the hot topics: economy, terrorism and the war just to name a few. He has the strong evangelical/WASP vote; hard-core republicans will always vote republican. However, he should worry about those who are “on the fence” about key issues. This is where a conservative Republican celebrity would have come in handy.
Let’s face the facts, Palin is on the ticket primarily for one reason: to capture the disgruntled females who are upset that Obama did not choose Hillary.
I just hope McCain does not croke while on the throne.