McCain surging in key battleground states
Thursday, July 24, 2008 at 08:05PM Notwithstanding Barack Obama's valedictory tour overseas, and McCain's gaffe-fest the past two weeks, somehow John McCain has picked up ground in the key battleground states -- at least according to recent WSJ and Washington Post polls.
Obama's previous leads in Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota have now turned into dead heats, while McCain has narrowed the gap in Wisconsin. Quite honestly, I think most pundits had written off Colorado for McCain -- and I think it's still a long shot for him to win -- but should he manage to hold it (remember it's a red state), it would make Obama's electoral math that much harder. Michigan and Minnesota, however, are blue states, and were thought to be leaning Obama.
What's the cause of the turnaround? Well it certainly can't be the economy. The news has only worsened the past few weeks, and Phil Gramm's "nation of whiners" comment couldn't have helped McCain's cause. My guess is that all the talk about the surge, and it's success, has helped McCain. The one thing his campaign has done effectively is reshape the debate about Iraq from a poor decision (Obama's strength) to the effective surge (McCain's strength).
It's clear that the surge has been effective, and nobody has led better on this issue than John McCain. He was about the only voice in support when it was initially announced, and he now looks prescient. Should the surge remain succesful through the fall, it could put Obama in the ackward spot of railing against a winning policy. Maybe it will be a contest after all.
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