My prediction: Obama blowout*
Saturday, June 21, 2008 at 09:04AM For the past several months, I've been writing that a Obama-McCain matchup would be competitive and essentially a toss-up; that McCain -- given his maverick history and appeal to independent voters -- was about the only Republican that could possibly keep this election close.
I'm beginning to think, however, that even John McCain stands little chance this November -- for several reasons.
For starters, the Democratic party seems to be coalescing around Obama much faster than was previously expected. Now that the Dems aren't fighting each other, they're clearly migrating to the Obama camp, and will continue to do so following the convention. If they even come close to being fully united against McCain it's game over.
Beyond that, Obama's decision to opt out of public finance means that he'll outspend McCain by 3 or 4 to 1. Obama could potentially raise and spend upwards of $400 million, while McCain -- because he's receiving public finance -- will be capped at $84 million. This means that Obama can flood the airwaives in key battleground states with an almost limitless number of TV ads, as well as target some traditional red states like George and North Carolina, while McCain will have to place his bets extremely carefully.
In fact, Obama is doing just that: their campaign began running commercials in 18 states this week, including places like Montana, Alaska and South Dakota -- states that the Democrats haven't won in decades but where Obama's internally polling shows strength. Obama wants to force McCain to defend his base -- George, Virginia, North Carolina, Montana, etc -- so that he won't be able to spend money elsewhere. It's a brilliant strategy, and McCain doesn't have the resources to counteract it. Clinton did the same thing to Dole in 1996, and effectively put the race away during the summer months.
Factor in that this will be a tidal-wave election against the Republicans at every level; that Obama is tapping into new voters and record turnout is expected; and that McCain simply isn't a very good campaigner, and it points in one direction: Obama blowout.
Yes, Obama still shows some weakness with middle-class voters, and he's prone to a misstep here and there, but truth be told: The only way he can lose this election is by making a colossal gaffe -- or more likely a series of colossal gaffes. Reverend Wright didn't derail him, and neither did the Rezco trial or the other minor dustups. Obama has shown that he can absorb the hits and move past them.
And even the independent groups -- the so-called 527 organizations that aren't officially affiliated with the campaigns -- have little money or inclination to "swift boat" Obama the way they did John Kerry four years. There are no 527 groups on the Republican side so far, and that doesn't seem likely to change. Were it not for the swift boat ads four years ago, John Kerry probably would have won.
At the end of the day, this election will probably look more like the blowout of 1996 then close contests in 2000 and 2004. It's not quite gameover, but it's heading in that direction.
* Of course I reserve the right to completely erase this post if it looks like I'll be wrong
Reader Comments (5)
is McCain grabbing Bush's package in this photo? If so, don't overlook the power of the gay vote.
Unless there is some major win the Pres pulls off with oil, n. korea, iran or another rogue state it's a blue election. Just look at where wall street money is; Obama. The largest bundler for Obama, Goldman Sachs. Who needs PACs when you have bundlers
Looks like that was a Kooluris photo-shop job...but well written (and absolutely indisputable - even from the republican camp) articl
It's actually a real photo, believe it or not. McCain will never live that one down.
McCain shouldn't be seeking any donations from anyone. It'll corrupt him. He's such a big believer in the state, good...let the state take care of his election finances.