The Battleground states
Monday, June 16, 2008 at 08:34PM It's not too early to monitor polls from the key battleground states.
While the national polls essentially show a dead heat, it's the battleground polls that will really matter.
If John McCain is going to win the White House, he will have to hold on to Florida and Ohio, and will most likely have to win another big state -- either Michigan or Pennsylvania -- to offset what will almost certainly be losses in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
To make matters even more complicated for McCain, he can't afford to lose one of his other big states like Virginia, which no Democrat has won since Lyndon Johnson, or Missouri, which John Kerry nearly won in 2004.
And what do the battleground polls show? It's a mixed bag so far. Looks like Obama has a five point lead in Pennsylvania, and a two point lead in Ohio -- two states where McCain figured to have the upper hand because Obama did so poorly against Clinton in those primaries. But it looks like Clinton's supporters have migrated to Obama, at least in part, and it's giving him surprising strength. McCain absolutely, positively must win Ohio, and he'll likely have to win Pennsylvania. Before it's all said and done, McCain will spend a ton of time and resources in both states trying to win-over Hillary's base.
On the plus side for McCain, he has a comfortable eight point lead in Florida -- essentially putting the state out of reach -- as well as two point advantage in Michigan, which is a bit of surprise given McCain's weak showing against Romney in that state. Michigan would be a huge pick up for McCain, and could offset a loss in Pennsylvania.
But if you're a McCain fan, the real problem is Virginia. Polls show the state to be a dead heat, and even though Bush won it pretty comfortably in 2004, the demographics have changed quite a bit over the past four years in favor of the Democrats. Moreoever, Obama blew out Hillary in Virginia, while McCain had a fairly weak showing against Huckabee.
If McCain loses Virginia, he'd have to win both Michigan and Pennsylvania to have a shot at the White House, while also holding Florida and Missouri. Obama is going to make a bunch of trips to the Commonwealth, and in the very least force McCain to spend a inordinate amount of time defending his home turf instead of campaigning in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Two states not mentioned are New Hampshire, which John Kerry won in 2004 but where McCain is very popular, and Iowa, which Bush won in 2004 but where Obama is very strong. It could be a flip-flop scenerio, where McCain picks off New Hamsphire and Iowa goes to Obama, though at the moment both are a dead heat.
I still believe the election will come down to "the big four": Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. If McCain wins three of the four, he'll at least have a shot, depending on Iowa, Missouri and New Hampshire (he'd have to win two of the three). If Obama can just split the big four, game over.
Reader Comments (2)
i feel as though right now, the plight for the presidency has been duly and evidently split between who the republican candidate is and who the democratic candidate is... i.e. am i the only one who assumes that Clinton supporters will migrate more toward Obama than toward McCain? How is McCain leading Florida right now, after Clinton took it a few months back?
(i blame the fact that our state is a retirement mecca... lol)
in other news, here's an article i thoroughly enjoyed: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/11090.html
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