Prediction time
Monday, May 5, 2008 at 07:17PM I did a segment today for WSJ.com TV prognosticating tomorrow's primaries.
My take: Hillary must win Indiana to keep going. Given all that Obama has gone through the past two weeks, if Hillary can't win Indiana, she's essentially toast. My guess is that she'll win, and probably by a comfortable margin (5 points). Obama is expected to win North Carolina by a healthy margin (5 points or more). If Hillary keeps it competitive, or manages an upset, Obama will be in real trouble.
At the end of the day, irrespective of the outcome, few net delegates will be gained by either candidate. The real electorate in all of this is the remaining uncommitted superdelegates. If Hillary continues to show momentum, the superdelegates will feel more comfortable in casting their lot with her. It will reinforce this idea that Obama can't close the deal, and will prove that the Wright controversy is having a major impact. Game on ..
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