Obama's soccer mom problem
Thursday, May 29, 2008 at 11:34PM Lost in the hubbub of the Scott McClellan book, a new Pew Research Center poll shows that 49 percent of white women have an unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama, up from 35 percent in February.
This could portend big trouble for Obama come November. For starters, it shows that the attacks leveled by the Clinton machine have stuck, and rest assured the McCain camp is studying this closely; they now have blueprint on how to drive up Obama's negatives, courtesy of Hillary.
Beyond that, Senator Obama has a lot of work in front of him to mend fences with these Hillary voters and win them back. Democrats have relied on the "gender gap" (usually 10-15 points) over Republicans to hold key blue states like New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Oregon in their column.
If Obama's negatives with white woman remain around 50 percent, he's going to struggle in these must-win states. If he's still working to lock up these states come October, instead of focusing on key red states like Virginia, Missouri and Colorado, he's in big trouble.
Look for the Obama camp to begin floating names of female veep candidates (not named Hillary) ...
Reader Comments (3)
Politico.com already speculating on female veep candidates. Break out your crystal ball.
True, I get Obama not resonating with a certain segment of Hillary supporters. But Pew also reported that McCain is losing steam among on-the-fence Dems: "At the beginning of the year, Democrats were evenly split in their opinions of McCain, but now they are overwhelmingly negative (72% unfavorable)."
I agree only to a point Nick.
1. Most voters go with their party's nominee once general election is underway. There might be some lingering bitter feelings, but at the end of the day, with Obama getting several months to "win" them back without Clinton around, I think a solid majority will flow to him.
2. Do we all really think women, once they get a full view of McCain's policies and his interest in brining another conservative to the Supreme Court (will overturn Roe v. Wade), will really vote for him over Obama? This and other positions will come to the forefront now that the primaries are basically over. Once you get to learn about Obama's competitor, they will flow to him in droves.
I really don't think this is as big an issue as overall race card and perceived lack of experience. A typical soccer mom (i.e. my wife and a Clinton supporter) will go with Obama I beleive
In a typical election, primary voters usually coalesce around the nominee; this, however, has been anything but a typical election, and most polls show that a third of Hillary's supporters simply won't vote for Obama. I think that number will drop down to 20% or so come September, but that's still a big problem for Obama.