How the west (could be) won

Both Obama and McCain spent a decent chunk of time this Memorial Day in the three key western swing states -- New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado -- and for good reason:  if Obama wins all three states, chances are he'll be President.

All three will be in play, though  historically the Republicans have done well in Colorado and Nevada.   Polls show Obama leading in New Mexico and Nevada, and McCain leading in Colorado.  

There are signs of weakness everywhere for McCain.  Start with Colorado.  Bush won it by 9 points in 2000, but only by 5 points in 2004.  Since then, the state has elected a Democratic governor and Senator, and the  legislature has flipped sides as well.   Obama did well in the Colorado primary, and undoubtedly it will be closer than Bush's victory margin of 5 percent in 2004.   

Nevada will be even tougher for McCain to hold.  Bush won it 2004 by less than 4 percent, and since then the state has unionized even further.  Growth in the state is driven by Las Vegas, which is a Democratic stronghold.  Polls show that McCain has a lot of ground to makeup if he wants to be competitive.  It's hard to imagine how McCain wins the election if he doesn't win  Nevada.

And New Mexico will be the toughest nut for McCain.  Bush lost it in 2000 by 366 votes, but came back to win it by less than 5,000 votes in 2004.  Though it's a neighboring state to McCain's Arizona, Obama has the support of its popular Governor Bill Richardson, and will likely put a ton of resources in the state.    The one wildcard:  can Obama attract Hispanic support.  He's struggled with Hispanic voters in the primaries, and if they don't rally to his campaign it might give McCain a slight opening.

McCain will be lucky to hold one of the "western three".  If he loses all three, game over.  If he can hold Colorado, and win Pennsylvania, then game on.