Ranking failure
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 at 08:46PM It's still a bit too premature to begin the discussion about where Hillary's campaign ranks among the all-time worst losses, but ... let's do it anyway.
Never in history has a candidate in an "open" election been a greater presumptive favorite than Hillary 2008. In fact, her initial strategy was to run as a quasi-incumbent -- an odd strategic move given the overwhelming mood for change in the country.
She had a laundry list of advantages over the primary field: money, organization, name recognition, superdelegate support, endorsements and even experience. And on top of that, she had a ring side seat for two successful presidential campaigns and a two-term presidency -- in other words, she knew exactly what it took to the win and retain the presidency.
And yet somehow a one-term Senator with few legislative accomplishments to speak of managed to steal the nomination from under her feet.
Now that it's all but official, it's still hard to fathom the magnitude of her loss. The sports equivalent would be Buster Douglass knocking out Mike Tyson or the Red Sox overcoming a 3-0 deficit to defeat the Yankees. Nobody -- absolutely nobody -- gave Obama, or anyone else in the field, a chance.
So where does it rank? When it comes to general elections, the only other upset of similar magnitude would have to be Al Gore in 2000. Under no circumstances should a sitting Vice President have lost to an inexperienced Governor during a time of peace and prosperity. With a booming economy, and a world relatively at peace, Al Gore should have won in a landslide; he tuned out to be a horrible candidate, however, and compounded that by running a horrible campaign.
Nixon's loss to Kennedy in 1960 was a mild upset -- not on par with Gore in 2000, but a pretty abysmal failure nonetheless. Dewey's loss to Truman in 1948 falls into a similar category, as does Charles Evan Hughes defeat to Wilson in 1916. But none of these are remotely of the same magnitude of Hillary 2008.
Next post will compare it to other primary upsets ....
Reader Comments (5)
Her failure was epic that it makes me wonder if Willie Randolph had anything to do with it.
great commentary and like the new design... Looking at the general election forecast of an Obama-John McCain race, based upon the latest available public polls from each of the 50 states, McCain has a slight 249-242 Electoral Vote lead, with three places, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin (47 aggregate Electoral Votes) all rated as dead heats. Comparing the data to the 2004 presidential election map, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico would switch from Republican to Democrat, while New Hampshire returns to the GOP column after voting for John Kerry four years ago. It takes 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency. Under this scenario, should Ohio vote McCain and Michigan and Wisconsin choose Obama, the election would end in a 269-269 tie. A presumed Democratic House of Representatives would then serve as the tie-breaker (each state casting one vote) and elect Obama as the 44th President.
I think you're pretty spot on Tim, except for Michigan and Wisconsin. I doubt McCain can win them, and with that being the case, McCain will have to win Pennsylvania (assuming that he loses Colorado and Iowa, too). I think New Hampshire is a real tossup, and could prove to be critical, along with Nex Mexico.
Opening up a wound there with bringing back the bad memories of Al Gore's failed 2000 presidential bid. Speaking of, you probably heard HBO is airing "Recount" this weekend, rehashing the 30+ days of the Florida debacle from 2000. I plan to tune in...as painful as it may be. Totally agree he should have had the 2000 in the bag as the sitting veep in time of prosperity and peace.
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