Pennsylvania ... the new Florida
Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 09:01AM With Barack Obama pretty much the presumptive Democratic nominee, pundits are beginning to take a look at how the electoral math will shakeout in a McCain-Obama election.
Obama comes at it with a distinct advantage in that McCain is saddled with a wildly unpopular war and president, a soft economy, and an overall mood for change in the country. Irrespective of what the polls show today, Obama will likely have a 5-10 point lead the day after the Democratic convention is over.
With that being the case, McCain's best hope rests on one simple fact: this campaign will defy the conventional electoral math. Put simply, McCain runs strongly in traditional Democratic states like Connecticut, New Jersey, Rhode Island and even California, while Obama has struggled in swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida.
A look back to 2000 and 2004 show that only three states -- three! -- actually flipped columns. In 2000, Al Gore won both New Mexico and Iowa, and lost New Hampshire. In 2004, Kerry won New Hampshire (no surprise since it borders Massachusetts), and lost Iowa and New Mexico. That was it -- everything else stayed the same, though the margins for some states varied.
That's a pretty static electoral map. Nobody is predicting the same thing this time around, but a superficial examination reveals some potential interesting battleground states. For instance, Obama will certainly compete strongly in Republican states like Colorado, Missouri, New Hampshire, and possibly Indiana (though solidly Republican, it borders Illinois), as well as Ohio and Florida -- two must-win states for Republicans. The simple fact is that McCain will have to spend much more time defending must-win Republican states than Obama will defending must-win Democratic states.
McCain, on the other hand, has historically shown strength in "independent" states like Connecticut, New Jersey and New Hampshire, and has decent poll numbers in other Democratic strongholds like California and Minnesota. Truth be told, however: he'll have a hard time winning any of these states. McCain's best chance at picking off a traditional Democratic state: Pennsylvania. Obama has shown real weakness in Appalachia, and the McCain camp is going to spend a tremendous amount of time and resources going after Hillary voters between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. If McCain is going to win the presidency, he'll absolutely have to win Pennsylvania, something no Republican has done since 1988.
Supposing McCain wins Pennsylvania, that's a net-gain of 21 electoral votes (on both the "Gore" and "Kerry" maps). That means that Obama will have to win some combination of Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Missouri (11) and New Hampshire (3) to make up the difference. This assumes McCain will win New Mexico (a swing state, but also a border state to Arizona), as well as Flordia (Obama polls weakly in the Sunshine state) and Ohio (where Obama performed weakly against Hillary). It further assumes that Obama will hold Michigan (though his strength is uncertain in MI since he didn't campaign there). These, of course, are big assumptions -- especially the Ohio and Florida wins. If McCain loses either of those states, it's over.
There are a few wild cards, however, where Obama upsets shouldn't be ruled out, such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia -- three states where he performed very strongly during the primary. Given that the Republicans lost special Congressional elections in formerly solid seats in Mississippi and North Carolina, McCain will have to spend extra time and resources protecting his home turf. Don't be surprised to see a southerner like Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina, on the ticket for that very reason.
The bottom line is that McCain has more states to "defend" than Obama, and his strategy rests entirely on winning Pennslyvania. It will be virtually impossible for McCain to get to 270 without the Keystone state. It's almost certain that Obama will pick-up a few Republican states, it's simply a matter of will it off-set Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes. If 2000 was all about Florida, Florida, Florida, then 2008 will be all about Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania.
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