Bad omen for Obama
Sunday, May 11, 2008 at 10:15PM Amidst all the talk about Obama finally (presumably) securing the Democratic nomination, he still faces sizeable obstacles in the general election.
First and foremost, according to the Financial Times, is winning "traditional" Democratic states like West Virginia. Writer Andrew Ward points out that no Democrat since Woodrow Wilson has won the White House without West Virginia, a mostly rural, working-class state.
It's expected that Hillary Clinton will trounce Barack Obama this Tuesday in West Virginia, but what's more concerning to the Obama camp is that a sizeable chunk of Hillary's WV support will go to McCain in the fall. Recent polls have McCain and Hillary in a dead-heat in a hypothetical West Virginia matchup, but McCain holds a 20 point advantage over Obama in that same poll.
Some interesting lines from the FT piece: "If he is the nominee, the Democrats have no chance of winning West Virginia," said Missy Endicott, a 40- year-old school administrator. "He doesn’t understand ordinary Americans."
And even more disturbing for the Democrats, writes the FT:
None of the 22 Democrats interviewed by the Financial Times at the Clinton rally would commit themselves to voting for Mr Obama if he became the nominee, and half said they definitely would not. The depth of opposition is particularly striking considering that Mingo County is one of the most Democratic places in West Virginia, having cast about 85 per cent of its votes for the party in the 2006 midterm elections. If Mr Obama cannot win there in November, he has little chance of carrying the state.
The general election is a long way away, but Obama needs to figure out how to appeal to Clinton supporters in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio if he's to have any chance of winning.
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