Hillary's Indiana problem
Wednesday, April 23, 2008 at 07:33PM Indiana has turned into the latest test for Hillary Clinton. Like Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania before it, she must win to continue on; if she loses, it's all over.
The problem for Hillary is that the state leans Obama. Though she has the support of most of the major state party leaders, including very popular Senator Evan Bayh, the raw math works against her. According to a Politico.com piece, "upwards of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion and Lake. The first is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state’s largest city, and the second is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market."
Moreover, 90% of the Democratic voters are expected two come from two Congressional districts, the Indianapolis based 7th District and 1st District, home to Gary. That puts Hillary at a big disadvantage. Most of her support has come from exurban and rural counties, but Indiana isn't nearly as rural as Ohio or Pennsylvania.
Keep in mind that Obama started 20 points down in both Pennsylvania and Ohio and closed the gap to 10 points in each state. He starts Indiana at a dead heat with Hillary -- it'll take all her skill to keep this one close.
Reader Comments (1)
Hear you on Indiana/Hillary. Not sure Politico.com got characterization exactly right - although Gary is technically considered Chicago market, it has a pretty different voting population (drive through Gary and neighboring Hammond, IN sometime). Possible she would resonate more with Gary voters, while Obama carries Chicago.