And the race goes on
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 at 11:09PM Unfortunately for the Democrats, tonight's outcome does nothing but muddy the picture.
Hillary needed a blowout to get back into the race in a meaningful way. She did just enough (10 point victory) to remain viable, but not enough to really change the dynamic (she's going to net only a handful of delegates). She can legitimately carry on to Indiana and North Carolina, but she still remains a long-shot to win the nomination.
Obama needed to keep it close -- single digits -- to keep the pressure on Hillary to get out. He didn't quite do it, and so now he needs to win Indiana to gain back the momentum.
The net result: Indiana becomes the new Pennsylvania. It's a forgone conclusion that Obama will win North Carolina fairly easily on May 6th, but Indiana -- which is also on May 6th -- should be competitive. Most polls have it as a dead heat, and since it borders Illinois, it's likely that Obama will have a stronger base of support than in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
If he wins North Carolina and Indiana, it's over. Hillary is going to fine-tune her "electability" message while continuing to drive up Obama's negatives. His biggest advantage at this point: money. According to several reports, he has $40+ million cash on hand and no debt, while Hillary has $10 million with a staggering $9 million in debt. As for John McCain: he must be smiling somewhere tonight.
Reader Comments (4)
nick, i enjoy your insights.
While I agree with most of your points, the one I'm not sure about is "McCain must be smiling..." If he is he might want to hold off for a while. I think what this Democratic barrage is doing is getting many of the negative issues out in the open, dissected and over analyzed to the point where the American public will likely dismiss them as old news when it comes down to the actual campaign. Both Obama and Clinton will have had a lot of practice in spinning and deflecting. It's a bit like boot camp.
nick, i enjoy your insights.
While I agree with most of your points, the one I'm not sure about is "McCain must be smiling..." If he is he might want to hold off for a while. I think what this Democratic barrage is doing is getting many of the negative issues out in the open, dissected and over analyzed to the point where the American public will likely dismiss them as old news when it comes down to the actual campaign. Both Obama and Clinton will have had a lot of practice in spinning and deflecting. It's a bit like boot camp.
Good points, but I think the biggest advantage McCain has with the Democrats still fighting is that it allows him to raise money while they're spending it ...
True-but i think he'll get al the money he needs once, and especially if, the Democratic Convention turns into a debacle.
'Cause it sure seems to be heading in that direction.
Of course theres always Bob Barr.