According to my crystal ball ..
Tuesday, March 4, 2008 at 06:01AM I'm in Texas, and I have my magic crystal ball with me, so I'm going to
make a few election predictions.
The easy one first: McCain will win Texas and Ohio handily, and the
Huckabeezer will formally drop out during his concession speech once
Mccain has finally secured the required delegates (which will happen
about two minutes after the TX polls close). And no, Huckabee will not
be McCain's running mate.
As for the Democrats, there really are three potential scenarios (I'm
assuming RI will go to Hillary and Vermont to Obama): Obama sweeps
both Texas and Ohio, and the primary is effectively over (whether
Hillary's campaign acknowledges it or not); Hillary sweeps both states
and steals the momentum, even if she still trails in the delegate count;
it's a split decision, with Obama winning Texas and Hillary Ohio. 
I'm predicting a split decision, with Obama actually securing more
delegates because of the unusual Texas "prima-caucus" system. I boldly predicted on CNBC last week that the race would be over on March 5th, and I still stand by that call, though I'm not quite as confident as I was last Wednesday.
Why the slight back pedaling? Well, Hillary has had a strong few
days: her attacks on Obama seem to be sticking a little, and the Tony
Rezco trial has become a distraction. It feels a little like New
Hampshire, where Hillary closed strongly and caught Obama off guard. If she manages to win Texas, even by a tiny margin, she might have enough momentum to take Pennsylvania in April, at which point all bets are off.
If it really is a split decision, as much as the Clinton camp will try
to soldier on, there will be growing calls from party elders for her to
bow out. I don't see how she can stay in until Pennsylvania if Texas
goes to Obama. We'll see ...
Reader Comments (3)
I'm hoping she wins both Texas and Ohio and they battle right thru to the convention.... how great would THAT be. :-)
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