Is it over?
Friday, March 21, 2008 at 06:38PM It would seem like an odd time to declare Obama the nominee, given that a new national poll shows Hillary ahead of Obama, but Politico.com has a fantastic piece stating just that. Their thesis: so long as Obama leads in pledged delegates after the last primary ballot is cast on June 2nd, there is no way
the superdelegates will deny him the nomination.
"The only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency," posit the authors. "She has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else. People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet."
Politico speaks the truth. I've held all along that if Obama leads in states won, pledged delegates, and popular vote after June 2nd, then it's over. Politico does me one better, essentially, in saying that even the popular vote won't matter if Obama leads in pledged delegates. And why? Because the Democratic party won't risk splintering the party -- which it most certainly will -- by denying the primary winner a chance at becoming the first African-American president. It's that simple. And that's why this race is over, save a monumental misstep (and no Reverend Wright doesn't even come close to counting as a misstep, let alone a monumental one).
The only real question will be if Hillary wants to put the party -- and the Clinton legacy -- at risk by asking the superdelegate to overturn the will of the people by scaring them about Obama's electability. That's her only road to victory at this point.
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