President Elect Obama
Wednesday, November 5, 2008 at 06:11AM One of the benefits of writing a post mortem four days before election day is that I don't have to do another one.
I wish I could say I was surprised by the results, but I wasn't. I thought the winning margin would be seven percent, and I was off by a point. Depending on the final results from North Carolina and Montana, it looks like the Electoral College will come in around 350, which is a little less than I thought, but a wide margin nonetheless.
On the House and Senate side, I am surprised that Obama didn't have longer coattails. I was expecting between 20-30 Democratic gains in the House, and possibly 8-10 in the Senate. Looks like the Dems will pick up 12 house seats and probably 5 in the Senate, though four races are still too close to call, including Al Franken in Minnesota. One key note: master parlimentarian and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell held his seat, which means that he'll continue to be a thorn in the side of Senate Democrats. Nobody knows how to wield the fillibuster more effectively than McConnell.
Bottom line: This is Obama's country now -- at least for the time being. He has a mandate, more or less, and with great promise comes huge responsibility. The American public is going to give him a honeymoon -- perhaps a slightly extra long honeymoon from the media -- but he'll need to deliver on his promises. If he does, he'll be greatly rewarded. If he flounders, or if the Democrats go too far in their proposals, it will create an opening for Republicans to storm back to power -- similar to 1994.
Reader Comments (2)
Very well said, Nick. BTW, Bobby Jindal in 2012
Nick we both know the second scenario is what is going to happen. 4 years from now...Obama isnt going to be able to keep blaming George Bush for the country's problems..they will be on his watch.
I think its a gross overstatement to say this is Obama's country. What makes this the greatest country in the world is that immediately after a heated and divided election, the american people can simply go back to business as usual.
And there is the problem for Obama and a lot of the blind sheep following that occured during this election. The fact of the matter is (and Nick you know this well) the degree of "change" people are expecting that benefits them is simply not going to take place.
Polotics aside I think Obama sends a great message that anything is possible in this country if you apply yourself and can add value and differentation in what you are offering - no matter what your race / sex / religion. It's ironic that Oprah is so emotional about this - hello Oprah...you are a billionare, if you didnt know American was the land of opportunity before..there is something wrong with you.
My grave concern is that there are a LARGE majority of people who think that "change" means some free stuff is coming their way. The lines at some of these polling stations reminded me of the midnight buffet lines on a Carnival Cruise Line - where loads of obeese people stand online for food for hours, not because they needed it, not because they where hungry, but simply because it was free (even thought they forgot they paid for the cruise).
You're right the honeymoon phase will end abruptly - and then it will be up to Obama to actually deliver on turning the economy around, creating more jobs, re-tooling Detroit etc..etc..etc... The list is extensive, and you and I both know Nick that all of these "promises" simply cannot be funded to reach everyone as promised. My concern is that since he lacks any experience to know how to accomplish any executive change on his own, he will staff up with insiders who will eventually revert back to business as usual. Already we hear rumors of Corzine from NJ joining as the tres of the secretary...a wall st insider who will only protect his "buddies" turned politician from a state that can't even manage its own budget.
From your gut Nick...how do you think this is going to turn out.