Nick Ragone.com - Home - Why Obama is going to win in a landslide

Monday

Nov032008

Why Obama is going to win in a landslide

Monday, November 3, 2008 at 04:47PM

Post mortems are usually done after an event, but in this case I’m going to do it before the final tally on Tuesday. Maybe I’ll be wrong, but I doubt it.

I think Barack Obama’s victory will be similar in size to George H.W. Bush’s in 1988 — 7 percentage points in the popular vote, and close to 380 delegates in the Electoral College. He’ll probably get the largest percentage of the popular vote of any Democrat since LBJ.

George W. Bush proved in 2000 that the margin of victory doesn’t necessarily dictate how one will govern, however; after all, he lost by 500,000 votes, but strutted as though he had a mandate.

But in this case, size does matter. We could point to a bunch of reasons why Obama is going to win huge: he ran an infinitely better campaign than McCain; Palin turned out to be a dreadful veep choice; he outspent McCain four to one, and so on. The list is seemingly endless.

But let’s be honest: Obama’s lopsided victory will stand as a clear repudiation of George W. Bush’s ruinous presidency, plain and simple. In eight years, Bush has driven the Republican Party to the edge of extinction, something that even Herbert Hoover and Richard Nixon struggled to do.

To think that a thin-resume liberal could win in a landslide in a post 9-11 world is mind-numbing, bordering on incomprehensible. Following the mid-term elections just six years ago, all the talk was about the Republicans consolidating their power for a generation, and it was the Democrats who seemed to be on the verge of becoming a permanent minority. The phrase that was used most often to describe the political landscape was the “re-alignment of the parties.”

Flash forward six years, and the situation has been completely reversed. That’s not John McCain’s fault; that’s not the fault of the Republicans in Congress; it’s not even because the electorate has undergone any fundamental change. It all rests with George W. Bush, and his decision to invade Iraq.

In my book, I called the invasion the worst decision in presidential history, the ramifications of which in lost blood, treasure, and moral standing around the globe would be felt for a generation, if not longer. But that’s not its only legacy. In one fell swoop, George W. Bush has done something that Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton - the last three Democratic presidents - couldn’t: completely re-align the electoral map.

If you simply take the invasion of Iraq out of the equation — let’s pretend Colin Powell and diplomacy won out — we’d probably still be looking at an evenly split country, give or take. Congress would likely be at parity, and this election would be a nail biter, irrespective of the candidates.

Of course, we can’t separate George Bush from Iraq anymore than we can separate Barack Obama from hope, mostly because it was a decision born of his arrogance, insularity, and a self righteousness that lives within people who see a higher moral purpose in their actions. He was a gut guy, a hunch guy, a guy who followed his instincts — facts and intelligence notwithstanding. He deplored intellectual curiosity, had no use for dissenters, and confused introspection and reflection for weakness.

Put another way, George W. Bush had all necessary personality flaws that are prerequisite for such a devastating blunder, and while the country has suffered for it, it’s the Republicans who are now paying for it. And will continue to pay for a long time to come.

Nick Ragone |

3 Comments |

Essays

View Printer Friendly Version

Email Article to Friend

Reader Comments (3)

What a fantastic post Nick. So well said.

By the way, since I live in Cook County, Chicago, I voted for Obama 18 times. I dont think he needs them, but a landslide is a landslide.

November 3, 2008 |

Mitch

October 6, 2011 |

xiaoai

When I was practicing last year in one of the hotel with my air max 24-7 shoes, our manager said to me a word ----In you future life, you will have a lot of choices to make. No matter what you are choosing for, you will know that you are having the real fact in your heart. Do not believe that you are the lucky person for ever. When you have the different choice for your life, you will never forget that you are having the different feelings about the life. I remember her word all the time and I am remembering her words all the time.
Now I am working at a small office with a few girls who all has the same max sneakers shoes with me. I begin to wrok for another field about the internet and I become to realise that I was the lucky person who ever has the chance to heard the word ---A lot of choice is waiting for you. No matter what I would like to express and I do not like that I am so eager to have the different feelings in the destyle. When you have the choice by yourself that means you have the duty for yourself. The feeling just
like you have choosed the max 90 shoes shoes when you in the air griffey max shoe store. But if you have no results for the choicice and you will have the different ends about the choice. So just make you believe that you are making the right choice for yourself, do not regret what you choose.

November 17, 2011 |

air max 2011

Post a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »

Author:

Author Email (optional):

Author URL (optional):

Post:

↓ | ↑

Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>