What would a blowout mean?
Thursday, October 9, 2008 at 05:50AM At some point, the conversation about this election will begin to shift to "what does an Obama route mean"?
The simple mathematics show that if Obama maintains his 6-8 point lead, and picks up key red states (where he is already leading) such as Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, it will be a full on blowout, similar to the one that George H.W. Bush enjoyed over Michael Dukakis in 1988. In that election, Bush won the popular vote by eight points, which translated into a whopping 426 electoral votes (to the Duke's 111).
A route of those proportions would certainly mean big gains in the House and Senate for Democrats. While voters tend to be smart about ticket splitting and preserving divided government (poll after poll shows that most voters prefer that each party control one branch of government), this is clearly a change election, and there's no doubt the Democrats will have entrenched majorities.
With that, Barack Obama will have a mandate -- and a long honeymoon -- to get things done, particularly on the economy and Iraq, the two biggest issues. He won't receive any Congressional roadblocks to enacting his economic plan (whatever that is ... I'm still not sure) and summarily pulling the troops out of Iraq (irrespective of how close they are to the finish line). It will be his ballgame, and the Republicans in Congress will be in a similar position to the '93 Congress, where they played loyal opposition to President Clinton.
It's way to early to begin forecasting how that will play out, but it's not too early to begin thinking about the impact of an Obama blowout.
Reader Comments (12)
Nick what is this BS.
Today is 10/9.....last time I checked the election isn't until 11/4.
Why should anyone waste their time thinking about hypotheticals and what ifs? Why not just let the election take its course and why doesnt the f'ing media back off and just let the people vote. What is the point of all these early polls....its obvious what it is...the media is trying to sway undecided's to go liberal...making them feel they are voting for the eventual winner anyway. They do this EVERY election. And EVERY election their polls, and exit polls are usually ALWAYS WRONG.
Why...because the american people don't buy into this crap. And on election day the conservatives who actually believe IN somthing actually go and Vote...and the Liberals who are anti-everything usually don't show up....ESPECIALLY THE YOUTH. Every election we hear this same youth vote will change the outcome...rock the vote...vote or die...it's all crap...it doesnt change anything.
Nick please explain the value in trying to guess these outcomes? Other than for the media to constantly have something to talk about?
Funny how mitch and friends are so scared of Sarah Palin, yet people are actually considering putting Obama who has a lifetime of radical anti-american socialistic associatiosn throughout his ENTIRE life....yet we aren't allowed to follow up on this because he is black...and that would be racist. The opposite is true. The inability to legitimately attack who he chose to associate with and what groups he aligned with his entire life when the cameras were OFF..speaks volumes of his character in a much truer sense than when the cameras are ON.
Nick who are you voting for?
"lifetime of radical anti-american socialistic associatiosn throughout his ENTIRE life" - hey What Really Matters, this is all you and your ilk have left to pin their hopes on? you lost. face it. The more I read your posts, the more I think you were the nut job that screamed "kill him" at a Pfailin rally the other day.
Clearly Mitch you have no idea about what define's one character in life. You dismiss Obama's ties for his entire life and simply say "get over it" as if the man who choose to associate with those groups is somehow different than the smiley faced honkey he is today.
At the end of the day Mitch who wins doesn't matter to me specifically. For the Country I want MaCain. Personally I am in a position where the president doesnt affect me financially or the decisions we make. My parents always instilled this quality into us, that the only thing we can ever truly rely on is ourselves and to create enough wealth so we are protected.
Again Mitch....I hope Obama wins and all of the lower classes and you can have this celebratory OJ IS INNOCENT moment....and than the next day you will all realize that your pathetic lives will continue to go on being pathetic....you're not all of a sudden going to have anything different...life won't change because this class of people won't change. Because principles and values don't change the presidency to these people is just a name in an office....every election these people hear the same promises than never come to see the light of day...yet these people do nothing to change their situation in life but rack up credit card debt.
The blacks cry about not having money and needing more relief....to that I say....Have you ever been to a Red Lobster Restaraunt on a Friday or Saturday Night...it's crowded with lines out the door...and no matter how many lights are on...it's very dark if you know what I mean. Baby steps...maybe if they stayed in and invested their Red Lobster money they would actually have some money for retirement....or if they didnt buy every freakin' sneaker nike comes out...or...or....or....
Your racism is more exposed every time you post something. David Duke just called, he told me to forgot to bring him his jock strap.
Why is it racism when you state a fact about a group.
Because your tone is over the top. Back off and be rational. By the way, Obama just mailed to a thank you card for supporting his campaign.
I am not saying that at all. But this doofus that keeps posting stuff about obama (blacks all go to Red Lobster, so and so is a honkey, etc) crosses the line. I don't care if there are McCain supporters, but I do care when those supporters (all in traditional red state areas of the country get so whipped up into a frenzy that shey shout "kill him" and "traitor" and stuff like that. This What Really Matters creep just builds that up on great blogs like Nick's. I am sure he posts the same vitriol on tons of other blogs, thinking his discussion point comes across as just and sound...they don't. They are as erratic as McCain's 72 year old brain.
This person can say all he wants, but when it is said in a public forum, he needs to be reminded that that kind of dialogue is childish.
We all know that Barack is ahead in the polls, state and national. This buffoon hates that. I understand that he supports McCain, but he is letting his emotions get the best of him.
By all accounts, Obama is going to win short of a game-chaning moment. Inciting race-baiting, Ayes crap, etc is doing nothing but emboldening independents to vot for Obama because they are sick of this mud slinging. Just think if Obama really dug into McCain past association, Pfailin's support of her husband's role on some group that wants to cede from the country, etc. He is above that nonsense. Apparently, What Really Matters isn't.
Now, I am leaving for a while for the jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. 2-1 odds that What Really Matters will have a problem with that.
I'm all for lots of points of view. Let's keep it civil and focused on the ideas, and not personalities.
Exactly, Nick.
Nick,
And all this time I embarrassed to think I was the troll.
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