McCain's desperation
Saturday, October 4, 2008 at 09:40AM With a month to go, John McCain is in big trouble.
On Friday, he pulled out of Michigan, and in most of the key battleground states -- Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio -- he's now trailing. Just three weeks ago, he was tied or leading in every one of those states.
The financial chaos and bailout news has certainly hurt him, as has Sarah Palin's horrendous interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. It formed a kind of perfect storm of crappy news for McCain, and completely changed the trajectory of the election.
With 30 days to go, can he catch up?
I suppose it's mathematically possible, but no candidate in history has come from 7 points down (the latest Gallup poll) this late in the election. At this point, there are only two ways McCain can make this a contest again.
First, if Obama stumbles -- badly. Hugely. Says something so insanely off-the-mark in one of the debates, or has another "cling to guns and religion" comment on the campaign trail, that it dominates the news cycle for a week. Obama proved in the primary that he is capable of mega-gaffes, but the odds of it happening this late in the game grow slimmer and slimmer every day. If I'm Mccain's camp, I'm not betting on this.
Second, if there is a blockbuster "October surprise" revelation about a week before election day. My guess is that it would have to involve a another Reverend Wright tape, or maybe something to do with Tony Rezco. Those are the two "negative narratives" for Obama that resonate, and if the McCain camp has any new dirt on either, look for them to drop it about a week out.
Short of that, I'm not sure that McCain can close the gap. Even if he and Palin are on message for the remainder of the campaign, too much damage has been done over the past three weeks. It's now Obama's to lose.
Footnote: The Cubs have elevated wretched to an art form.
Reader Comments (7)
I love it!
Here is the only positive storyline following Cubs game:
A good friend of mine went to the game. After the game and after hitting a few area bars with some friends, he took a cab home. On the way home, he got hungry and went to a sort of dive restaurant in a pretty out of the way area on Halstead st. He walks in, it is late and nobody is in there but one other customer sitting near the back. My friend goes back there as the bathrooms were right there, he looks at the guy...and it is big-time Cubs fan and actor is some of my favorite movies BILL MURRAY. Sitting alone and waiting for his food.
My friend comes back from the bathroom, picks up his food and sits at table with Murray, eating and talking about the Cubs and other crap. They hung out for about 1/2 hour. My friend left and, since he was kind of drunk, wondered if it was just a dream or something. It was real. A memory for the rest of his life for sure.
It made him forget just how awful the Cubs are.
Hypothesizing a blockbuster "October surprise" for Obama, what do you guys think is the best thing his camp should be doing to prepare? It wldn't be outlandish to think that McCain's camp wld release and/or pounce on that (unlike the Dems who can be so slow to take advantage of things like that at key moments in time)...
They key to preventing an October surprise is to do opposition research against your own campaign, and find every potential skeleton in the closest. I'm sure Obama's team is doing just that with the Reverend Wright stuff.
There can be an October lie, but not a surprise.
Yes, the Cubs are wretched.
But unlike the Mets, they made it to the playoffs.
And they didn't blow a lead.
Again...
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