Ragone takes on Podhoretz
Friday, October 31, 2008 at 07:40PM Conservative commentator John Podhoretz has a piece called "Ten Reasons Why McCain Might Win." I think it's mostly fanciful thinking, but I thought I'd comment (in italics) on his observations.
1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.
--> Hmmmm ... that 14 percent number is skewed because a third of the country has already voted, which the poll doesn't account for. It sounds like a large number of undecideds, though I suppose it's plausible.
2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.
--> There's no doubt that new Democratic registrations are far outpacing new Republican registrations this year. By his own math, he contends it was even four years ago, but two years ago the Democrats had a four point advantage. It's not implausible that the Democrats pick up another four points this year, which would give them an 8 point advantage in registration. The math actually supports that.
3) Obama frequently outpolled his final result in primaries, which might have many causes but might also indicate that he has difficulty closing the sale.
--> The so-called Bradley Effect. There's no doubt that Obama overpolled in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Indiana, while in the caucus states he actually underpolled. Who knows how this will play out on election day, but there's no question that the Obama camp is concerned about it.
4) The argument in the past two weeks has shifted, such that many undecided voters who are now paying attention are hearing about Obama’s redistributionist tendencies at exactly the right moment for McCain.
--> He's spot on with this. The combination of Joe the Plumber and Obama's NPR interview where he lamented that the Supreme Court didn't do enough to redistribute the wealth had made this issue front and center the past week. McCain and Palin are smartly hammering at this, and it's beginning to tick the polls ever so slightly. Let's see if the momentum continues to build over the final four days.
5) The tightening in several daily tracking polls indicates a modest surge on McCain’s part that could continue through the weekend until election day. If he is behind by three or four points right now, a slow and steady move upward could push him past the finish line in first place.
--> In theory I agree with this, though there's no way that McCain is only behind three or four points right now, as Podhoretz suggests. But it is all about momentum, and McCain actually has some of it right now, thanks to Obama's redistributive blunders the past week.
6) In terms of the electoral map, the energy and focus McCain is directing at Pennsylvania could pay huge dividends if he pulls it off. If he prevails there, it might follow that the message will work in Ohio too. And if he wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, he will probably win even if he loses Virginia and Colorado.
--> He's right that it all hinges on Pennsylvania and Ohio. Truth be told, McCain has no choice but to spend gobs and gobs of time there because he's already written off Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, three blue states. He still needs to hold serve in Ohio, Floridio, North Carolina, Iowa and Missouri -- a loss in any of those states, coupled with a Virgina (which seems likely), means game over.
7) Early voting numbers are not oceanic by any means, which may indicate the degree of enthusiasm for Obama among new voters is not something new but something entirely of a par with past candidates, like John Kerry. And they show more strength on the Republican side than most people expected.
--> I have no clue what he's talking about.
8) What happened with the Joe the Plumber story is that Obama has now been effectively outed as a liberal, not a moderate; and because liberalism is still less popular than conservatism, that’s not the best place for Obama to be.
--> True, sorta. For sure, Joe the Plumber humanized Obama's tax plan, which led to a two week conversation about redistribution of wealth. Not sure Obama saw that coming.
9) The fire lit under Obama’s young supporters in the winter was largely due to Iraq and his opposition to the war. The stunning decline in violence and the departure of Iraq from the front page has put out the fire, to the extent that, like the young woman who made a sexy video calling herself Obama Girl and then didn’t vote in the New York primary because she went to get a manicure, they might not want to stand on line on Tuesday.
--> Whatever.
10) Hispanic voters, who are always underpolled, know and appreciate McCain from his stance on immigration and will vote for him in larger numbers than anyone anticipates.
--> I'm not sure I see hispanic voters breaking McCain's way on election day.
Reader Comments (2)
Here i all you need to know: McLoser's god-awful VP running mate today said to a conservative talk radio host: "i feel that the 1st amendment is in danger in this country, just listen to all the criticism i am taking."
she is a scary, scary person to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. What an absolute bimbo.
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