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Is a comeback possible?

Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 07:37PM

With less than a week to go, and McCain trailing anywhere between six and 10 points (depending on the poll), the question becomes: is there any precedent for a comeback of this proportion?

It's not an easy question to answer. Unlike sports, where comebacks are comparable and memorable -- think the Red Sox over the Yankees in the 2004 LCS; the Bills over the Oilers in the 1993 playoffs; and now the Sox over the Rays in game 5 of the LCS, to name a few -- presidential comebacks are hard to pinpoint because it's based primarily on polling and speculation.

We know Obama has some type of lead -- too many polls have showed too big a margin for too long for it to be completely inaccurate. But the size and relative strength of the lead is a bit uncertain, though my guess is that it's fairly substantial and intractable at this point.

If you look at the modern era of presidential polls, starting with 1936 when George Gallup conducted the first scientifically based poll (and predicted a Roosevelt landslide), there have been very few "comebacks".

Roosevelt was favored in '36, '40 and '44, and won easily in all three races. 1948 represents the biggest comeback, if you want to call it that, when Harry Truman "upset" Thomas Dewey on the strength of his "give 'em hell Harry" barnstorming trip over the final few weeks. All the polls showed a sizeable Dewey lead, but they were phone-based surveys, and back then phone ownership skewed heavily towards the wealthy.

Eisenhower was a big favorite in '52 and '56 and won handily both times. 1960 was a tight contest from the beginning, and it remained that way through election day, as Kennedy nosed Nixon by a whisker in one of the tighest elections in history. Goldwater stood no chance in '64 and was blown out. The polls showed Nixon and Humphrey in a dead heat in '68, and like 1960 it was one of the closest elections on record. 1972 was never even a contest as Nixon put a historic smackdown on McGovern.

1976 was another unusual election in that the challenger, Jimmy Carter, held a narrow lead through most of the fall, but Ford closed aggressively and nearly defeated him. Had the election been held a week later, Ford would have won. For McCain supporters looking for a historical precedent, this might be it.

I suppose 1980 could encourage McCain supporters, too, in the sense that Reagan gained about 10 points in the final week, but that came mostly on the strength of his brilliant debate performance, which took place exactly one week before election day. It proves, in a way, that the polls can move late, but McCain has done nothing to move them heretofore.

Reagan's re-election was never in doubt, and neither was Bush's in 1988, for that matter. Clinton held a big lead throughout the fall of 1992, and an even bigger lead in '96, and was never seriously challenged either time. In 2000, Gore closed a 2-3 point gap with days to go after it was revealed that Bush had been arrested for DWI -- proof positive that "october surprises" can make a difference. And in 2004, the polls showed Bush with an ever-so-slight advantage over Kerry in the closing days, and he won by a close -- but comfortable -- 2 points.

The net takeaway from all this: comebacks are few and far between. Most voters have made up their minds, and barring some type of october surprise, it's unlikely we'll see any late movement.

Nick Ragone |

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Reader Comments (17)

I cried during Obama's 30 min infomercial. It was like watching "Old Yeller" all over again.

October 29, 2008 |

Mitch

If Obama really wants to spread the wealth around, why didn't he give back some of the millions he spent on his damn infomercial last night? At least Pushing Daisies was still on...

October 30, 2008 |

Alan

Obama injected millions back into the US economy by spending it on his infomercials...

October 30, 2008 |

Well said, MJ. I didn't want to embarrass my dear friend Alan. Think about how much money all the various vendoirs made off of this effort - video production companies, lighting/staging/photography vendors and the list goes on.

Obama has injected way more of his campaign money back into the hands of working americans than McCain has done, Alan. So, what is ecatly your argument???

And, what do you want Obama to do, hold all the cash and keep it in the coffers of the DNC? Wouldn't you rather spend the money and infuse that capital into at least a few companies that otherwise wouldn't have had this work..and thus not given jobs to people to fulfill this work?

October 30, 2008 |

Mitch

How does Obama plan to inject money into the economy when he taxes it away from people making more than $150,000 a year and gives it to people who pay no income tax anyway. Do you think they are the ones who are going to spend that money wisely?

October 30, 2008 |

Alan

Correction: OB will tax more than $250K. Regarding the money OB injected into the economy, the result is that it contributes to the strength of overall spending and consumer demand.

October 30, 2008 |

Alan, your last comment tells me you have never listened to a single obama speech or read his economic plans, only what mccain and pfailin say. it is $250K and it DOES NOT include folks that aren't wage earners (i.e. homeless people, unemployed, etc). I mean, how many times does Obama have to say 250K...apparently, a lot more than the 5.000 times he has already said it.

Either debate from facts or don't talk at all my friend

October 30, 2008 |

Mitch

and alan, i am pretty sure you don't earn 250k, so do you want to give back the tax credit obama is offering?

October 30, 2008 |

Mitch

Biden said it was $150k

October 30, 2008 |

Ricky

Biden had a slip of the tongue, he has been known to do that a time or two. he, obama, their spokesperople and any others have said as much. it is 250K. I mean, don't beleive me, go read it in anything..his plan, online, articles, youtube, anywhere. come on guys, this isnt even a debatable issue. it is 250.

prove me wrong and i will give you all a break and never post on ragone.com again...that is a challenge.

October 30, 2008 |

Mitch

Biden's had more slip of the tongues than Brittney Spears

October 30, 2008 |

Nick

Ricky thank you, yes, Biden did say 150k.

Mitch, what you guys also fail to realize is the 250k is not just per PERSON, it's also per HOUSEHOLD. 250k amongst two married people in New York with two children, that's not a ton of money. To people in Toledo, I bet it is. But not in New York. That why economic redistribution can NEVER work. We have little economies that vary by state and by city. You can't make everything equal.

October 30, 2008 |

Alan

Economic distribution. um, like the idea of wealthier people paying more than unwealthy people? that is our economy. There is nothing equal now and there will be nothing equal under obama's plan. his plan is much like bill clinton's plan in terms of tax rates...we you complaining then?

October 30, 2008 |

Mitch

Under Clinton, less than 33% of income tax filers paid ZERO. Under Obama, that would be raised to 44%. I don't see how Obama's tax plan is like Bill Clinton's...

October 30, 2008 |

Alan

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